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. unacceptable. >> after trailing obama, polls in virginia show the race is a dead heat. >> we need to take back america. it is up to you guys in virginia. >> it has been that way ever since campaign advisor say his first debate performance -- when the candidate came back he showed new confidence. the volunteers were energized and they saw of the bomb in the polls. it remains neck-and-neck in the state. a state mitt romney very much wants to change from blue for barack obama back to read with the win for the republicans. it will be three other names under the virginia ballot. he served in virginia state senate as a member of congress between 1997 and 2009. carey johnson was the republican governor of new mexico. a representative of the green party. he she is a position focused on the environment. she was arrested for taking supplies and food for activists in texas. this could make a difference in the tight race. >> another big competition on the ballot is the senate race between tim kaine and george allen. the numbers show the lead is shrinking. the latest poll shows 50% and allen at 46. 4% are
and governor romney is dead even. latest fox news poll of likely voters showing president obama and governor romney are tied at 46%. today the battleground states becoming a battlefield. >> president obama has seen a once steady lead in michigan decline two points. michigan is in toss-up status. the poll is from the detroit news. it finds obama leading romney 47-45%. that is the second poll in the week that has shown a tight race in michigan. >> it's not too late to turn this around. we can save medicare and social security. we can cut spending to get this budget balanced and pay off this debt. we can get people out of poverty and back to the middle-class. we can get america back on the right track and give our kids a debt free future. >> so ask yourself, who do you trust to be straight with you, to level with you. who do you trust to stand up for the middle-class and measuring? ladies and gentlemen, we are not. these guys, we are not in decline. they are in denial. >> you got fundamentals in this race. one of the fundamentals is the economy is horrible. you have the tea party that arisen si
push. to that end, a pew research poll, very, have interesting that says nationally the obama campaign touched 14% of the electorate -- excuse me. 11% of the electorate with either door knocks or phone calls. mr. romney has gotten to 10%. very, very close. battleground, numbers are reversed. romney reached 14% of the likely voters in battleground states casting a ballot on tuesday. obama only got to 13%. they're even in the polls. aapparently they're even even in get out the vote effort. they're down to wire. no indication it will change in five days. >> dana: carl, thank you. we'll go to ed henry, with president obama in las vegas. ed, we have a new nickname for you coined by greg gutfeld. we thought you desevened one. election ed. take it away. >> reporter: i like it. that's great. just like campaign carl. bottom line, they are promising a new message for the president today. it will be more positive, less of the negative tone, ripping to mitt romney. this is his final case to what he did in wisconsin today, talking about what he would do in a second term. laying out that he wants to
. >> a new marquette university law school poll shows president obama has opened up an eight-point lead in paul ryan's home state of wisconsin. 51-43. a new quinnipiac/"new york times"/cbs news swing state poll shows president obama leading in ohio with likely voters 50 to 45. a tighter race in virginia. president obama at 49, mitt romney at 47, which is a statistical tie within the poll's 3% margin of error. and in florida that poll has president obama at 48 and mitt romney at 47. another statistical tie. tonight nate silver of the "new york times'" 538 blog forecasts that on november 6th president obama will win 300 electoral college votes and mitt romney will win 238 and president obama's chance of re-election ticked up tonight in nate silver's calculations to 78.4%. and finally, george w. bush has entered the presidential campaign. he did that today when he was dragged into it by his little brother in florida. >> do you honestly think that this president is capable of bringing people together? his entire strategy is to blame others. starting with my brother, of course. basically, he
obama and governor christie next. and what will happen just six days from now when polls open, or they try to open, in the midst of the cleanup from hurricane sandy? we'll have a look at election mechanics. that's coming up. [ female announcer ] food, meet flavor. flavor, meet food. it's time for swanson flavor boost. concentrated broth in easy to use packets. mix it into skillet dishes, for an instant dose of... hell-o! [ female announcer ] get recipes at flavorboost.com. boring. boring. [ jack ] after lauren broke up with me, i went to the citi private pass page and decided to be...not boring. that's how i met marilyn... giada... really good. yes! [ jack ] ...and alicia. ♪ this girl is on fire [ male announcer ] use any citi® card to get the benefits of private pass. more concerts. more events. more experiences. [ jack ] hey, who's boring now? [ male announcer ] get more access with a citi card. [ crowd cheering, mouse clicks ] >>> the president of the united states and i have now had six conversations since sunday. that shows to me a level of caring and concern and inter
. first a new "washington post"/abc poll shows mitt romney and president obama with a tie. a new "new york times"/cbs poll has the president up one, 48-47. and a new npr poll has romney up one, 48/47 but the npr poll also finds that president obama has a four-point lead in the battleground states, 50-46. we'll be right back. this is hayden. he's five years old. that's elizabeth. and that's skyler... and his mom, nancy. they're just a few of the californians who took it on themselves to send you a message about what they need to restore years of cuts to their schools. prop thirty-eight. thirty-eight raises billions in new revenue - bypasses sacramento and sends every k through 12 dollar straight to our local schools... every school. for them. for all of us. vote yes on thirty-eight. joe," and i will shave off my mustache of 40 years if we lose any of those three states. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was, of course, david axelrod, famous for his mustache. he's with the obama campaign, sounding very bullish i should say on their chances, obama's chance of carrying michigan, minnesota, a
showed in iowa, president obama has a lead. in wisconsin, it's a smaller lead. some other public polls suggest that as well. however, the romney campaign has made it adamantly clear that according to their polls in iowa, the race is dead even. so it really kind of matters where you actually see the race right now. but it's largely going to come down, as chuck pointed out, to the midwest and that's why you'll see president obama campaigning in ohio, wisconsin, iowa a lot these last five days. >> amy, let me bring you in. i know to mark's point, i believe it was one of the romney advisers or a supporter who said i think the word was "crap" when it comes to polls, at least the ones they didn't like to see. nevertheless, you can disagree with the percentage point here or there, but we've not seen a poll where governor romney is leading in a battleground state. >> no, we haven't. but he feels really good about florida. his team does. i don't think it's a double-digit lead, but they're feeling good about florida. they're feeling good about wisconsin. they think the apparatus in place from th
to be worried if the polls have anything to say about it. president obama is ahead six points in iowa. that's coming from the nbc news "wall street journal" morris poll. the president's also up by three in wisconsin and two in new hampshire. two things helping him out here are early voting and the gender gap. president has a double digit lead with women in all three states and in iowa, he leads with early voters by a full 30 points. more bill press is coming up. stay with us. (vo) brought to you by metlife. stay tuned for the answer. (vo) brought to you by metlife. jack you're a little boring. boring. boring. [ jack ] after lauren broke up with me, i went to the citi private pass page and decided to be...not boring. that's how i met marilyn... giada... really good. yes! [ jack ] ...and alicia. ♪ this girl is on fire ♪ [ male announcer ] use any citi® card to get the benefits of private pass. more concerts. more events. more experiences. [ jack ] hey, who's boring now? [ male announcer ] get more access with a citi card. [ c
, it could break and if it breaks, kerry wins. obama was polling the same way the whole time. in 2000 there was this assumption that it was going to break for bush and it never did. >> for those of us who work long hours, sometimes it's hard to remember, it's exciting. it's an exciting time, right? it could go either way. i think what you're seeing is part of the reason that it's not. we always talk about a break and then don't end up seeing onenessly. it's all about turnout now. it's all about getting voters to the polls. so who has momentum and who doesn't, it's a momentum game. >> number two, the break for gore and it was barely -- and the real break happened in democratic senate races. >> it's interesting, going back to 1984, very quickly, the difference in that break and obviously we were still in diapers back then -- >> i was out of diapers. maybe i shouldn't have been. >> veg began appeared to have the confidence and appeared to be the incumbent. >> i've had romney people admit to me they have to have some momentum. they believe it's a point in turnout. that's why they are real
president obama up 50-45 and then public policy polling, 50-45 those are both five-point leads and then the university of cincinnati has obama with a two-point lead. as you look at that, as far as polling goes six days before an election if we weren't worried about being wrong, etc. we'll put that in the books. >> i don't know if we'll put it in the books. ohio is one of these volatile states. you just want know it can change. you don't look at the 5-5-2 today, you look at the days that the president has been ahead in the poll, even in the margin of error. >> cenk: so let's get a sense of where they stand. obama is leading 48-45 according to the detroit news. according to epic--is that your poll. >> that's a poll i took earlier today. six-point poll. >> cenk: and not michael's poll. 48-42, six-point lead. when you go to wisconsin 51-43 and 51-43. that's marquette. >> that just came out. that's a poll that a lot of journalists in wisconsin--i just talked to someone in wisconsin lee berquist said we're all waiting for that poll. that poll is definitive. >> cenk: so wisconsin look
." a lose ce..hee titu..ea nendc. small amount oo voters.... tt go to the polls....ss is the obama camp just panderinggto the party....???vatz: 12:18:10 "he esn'ttwant to talk aaout to alk about domestic policy, he ants to talk aboutt polittcians focus on key issues - like the economy. kristen fori: 13:07:53 " for me, i wanna vote for somebooy who's goona make a difference." ron shabazz: 14:17:58 "they shouldn't par. they ssould focus on g &ptheir party and what they're gonna do better."jay laskin: 14:25:01 "i'd likk to hear more about what they have to weow tuayhemselves."whatever melinda roeder -- fox 45 news at ten. poming up..the raaens... at worr in owings mills. mills.thh buzz at thee castle... ooer the return of ((brk 3) 3 cominggup in ourr6 o'clock miba...public anta..g the governor f new york is giving... to people who take the rain or a bus. well, inside the brewer, there's a giant staircase. and the om is filled with all these different kinds ofoffee. actually, i justress this button.
heat. a cnn poll finds mitt romney holding a slight lead over president obama, 48-47%. while a new gallop poll shows a majority of americans think president obama will win reelection. >> hundreds of voters waited in the dark and the cold tonight to help decide the presidential race and weigh in on three big issues in maryland. early voting resumes in maryland after sandy. lines wrapped around buildings this afternoon. some people waited three hours to vote. early voting in maryland will be extended until friday and polling places will stay open until 9:00 p.m. >> coming up tonight, a traffic nightmare up in new york as they struggle to get back to a normal day after the hurricane. >> one man wanted for three attacks in our area. >> heightened police presence this halloween. we are live as super heroes and goblins are on the streets of georgetown. >>> investigators are looking for 25-year-old lawrence stuart, ii. he is suspected of throwing homemade pipe bombs into three different houses in staff ford county and in fredericksburg, yesterday. his intended targets were his exgirlfrien
national polls out there, gives president obama just a one percentage point lead nationally. that is a tie as the president heads back out today to speak with voters. president obama's back on the campaign trail. polls show him up by six in iowa, two in wisconsin and two in new hampshire, but this week he's focused on new jersey. >> we are not going to tolerate red tape, we are not going to tolerate bureaucracy. >> reporter: touring storm damage with republican rival governor chris christie. >> i cannot thank the president enough for his personal concern and compassion for our state. there will be some folks who will criticize me for complimenting him. well, you know what, i speak the truth. >> reporter: analysts say the president's picking up political points. >> the message that christie is sending voters is that obama is doing a good job. he's not a scary, socialist person, that he's somebody who can be trusted. >> reporter: in florida, governor romney criticized the administration's record helping small business. >> sometimes, regulators seem to look at businesses like they're the enem
, folks, the latest rasmussen data tracking poll, here it is, romney 49, obama 47 the same as the past three days and i take it all that i said about governor romney losing some momentum. he's kept that 2 point gap for the the last three days, above president obama. got it? i think i've cleared myself. we've made a lot of comparisons between 2012 and 1980 and now another one, gas lines, people in new york and especially new jersey lining up for literally hours. many stations don't have power at all and some have run out of the gas they've got and they can pump and they don't know when the tankers can get in to give them more gas. so, should stations be allowed to raise their prices, let the market decide who gets gas and who doesn't? all rise, judge andrew napolitano is here, i don't-- >> you never give me the easy ones. . [laughter] >> you realize of course, that if gas stations were allowed to charge what they wanted to charge, and to, to get rid of the gas lines, there would be a revolution, you realize that. >> do you realize that if buyers were willing to pay what they agreed to
. "fox news poll" showing him with a nine point ad vage over the president. with mr. obama on the campaign trail governor romney is sharpening the contrast with the president who is best to bring back prosperity for the nation. >> do you want the four more years like the last four years? >> no!. >> you want four more years where 23 million americans are struggling to have a good job? >> no!. >> you want four more years where earnings are going down every year? >> no!. >> you want four more years of trillion dollar deficits in washington? >> no!. >> reporter: governor romney drawing the sharp contrasts with government. do you want bigger government with stifling regulations or smaller leaner government to help the private sector to grow and create jobs. he dinged the president in a new ad today suggesting somewhere down the road he may appoint a secretary of business, watch. >> barack obama says he may appoint a secretary of business. his solution to everything is add another bureaucrat. why not have a president who actually understands business? >> reporter: now, as the pol
other hypothetical. >> he said that russia poll earlier. i think it's notable that obama is only at 41%. 41-8. big margin, but he's under 50 and undecideds tend to break for the challenger. lou: to you want to rebut his analysis. >> i'll leave him to analyze their boat in russia. something interesting to watch. there continues to be an enthusiasm gap between republicans and democrats. barack obama ahead of mitt romney. even are slightly at which means for my party you have to get our enthusiasm level up to match the ground game. lou: and you're doing an excellent job of that. >> exactly correct. exactly correct. lou: he would like to say that one more time. >> exactly correct. he who turns out and get his vote out wins the election. the problem the democrats have is that may not be able to replicate the same kind of turnout as they had in 2008. very hard, particularly among young people and others who wer so involved. lou: you are one of the country's leading strategists. you understand these polls better than almost anyone. give us your sense of what is happening right now? our indepe
politics average of recent polls, romney resumed the post hurricane criticism of obama's presidency. >> we need change. for real change we have to take a different course. i will get the economy going from day one we are making changes. >> government reported consumer confidence is at the highest point since obama took office. romney if a new ad mocks the president for resurrecting a proposal on monday rejected by the congressional republicans earlier in year. for a new cabinet level secretary of business. romney slammed him on the stump for it, too. >> find something to suggest it will be better over the next fur years. we game up with an idea that he will create the department of business. i don't think adding a new chair in cabinet will help add millions of jobs on main street. >> the obama camp feigned shock at romney's disdain. >> this is an idea that republicans should have rushed to embrace when it was proposed on january 13. proposal for smaller, smarter, more efficient government. what is the thing that the republicans supported. >> new "associated press" poll shows by 10-point ma
average, there are nine polls included in this. 48.9% for president obama. 46.6% for romney. it seems almost every day there is something new out of ohio. what are you seeing on the ground there? >> i like north carolina. the candidates have been in ohio so much they literally have become pests. they will be here through the weekend. obama will be here monday in columbus with jay-z and bruce springstein. they are pulling out all the stops. what i see on the ground is a close race. i saw a poll today i trust that has dead even. the candidates now are in posture of going through the bases. because they are only about 2% of the voters here who are undecided. p there are hundreds of volunteers doing that. i expect we'll see another 2% election here. if romney loses the presidency because he loses ohio by 2%. he will wake up every day for the rest of his life regretting that he did not choose senator rob portman of ohio as his running mate. he will also regret the editorial entitled "let driz go bankrupt." if obama loses by 2% for a simple reason. the magic is gone. after the drudgery of f
carl rove. mr. rove, new "new york times" poll out today shows president obama doing very well in florida, ohio, virginia. dick morris going to have thoughts on that later. but, do you take that poll seriously? >> no, i don't take those three polls seriously. here is why. in florida, they have obama ahead by 1 point. they have seven points more democrats than republicans. even in 2008 there were only 3 points more democrats than republicans. similarly ohio 5 point margin for obama. 8 point advantage for the democrats. 8 points in 2008. does anybody think ohio is going to be as democrat as it was in 2008. 2 points for obama. 8 point democrat in 2008. six points democrat. does anybody think it's going to be as good as it was in 2008. at mildly that's called absurd. >> bill: let me run it down for the folks. all the polls say, all of them say that prib voters are more motivated this time around. so when when mr. rove says do you think it's going to be the same democratic turnout in ohio as it was in 2008. the answer based on the data is no. because republicans are more motivated t
an obama win. does that indicate that you buy this latest poll? >> what we're seeing in the latest poll numbers is sort of what we've been seeing the last couple weeks here which is a slight edge to obama in in some of the most important swing states. there was polling yesterday in the state of ohio, the all-important state of ohio, that no republican has ever worn the white house without carrying, that showed obama up slightly. we're seeing close races in virginia, florida, and of course wisconsin where the president is going to be today when he resumes campaigning. so it's close, but the president certainly has a slight edge in these important swing states that both candidates need to win to get to 270. >> how hard has the last few days been for romney with the president inspecting storm damage, how tough is his job? >> its eye certainly a challenge. you have somebody in the president who is the commander in chief. if you're mitt romney, you want to be a part of the conversation somehow. he spent tuesday participating in storm relief efforts, taking time away from the campaign trail,
individual numbers. in wisconsin our new nbc news/"wall street journal"/maris poll shows obama with a three-point lead. in new hampshire our poll has the president two points ahead. in iowa our poll has president obama up by six, 50%, 44%. in colorado a new cnn/opinion rerve poll shows preb leading by two. finally to michigan where a new epic poll shows the president ahead by six, 48%, 42%. we'll be right back. with the , the next... stop, stop, stop! my car! not so much. but that's okay. you're covered with great ideas like optional better car replacement from liberty mutual insurance. total your car, and we give you the money to buy one a model year newer. learn about it at libertymutual.com. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility -- what's your policy? >>> for the past few days all of us have been focused on one of the worst storms in our lifetimes, and we're awed and humbled by nature's destructive power. i was out in new jersey yesterday and saw the devastation, and you really get a sense of, you know, how difficult this is going to be for a lot, a lot of people. >> welcome back to "
our new nbc news/"wall street journal"/maris poll shows obama with a three-point lead. in new hampshire our poll has the president two points ahead. in iowa our poll has president obama up by six, 50%, 44%. in colorado a new cnn/opinion research poll shows the president leading by two. finally to michigan where a new epic poll shows the president ahead by six, 48%, 42%. we'll be right back. who sent it to cindy, who wondered why her soup wasn't quite the same. the recipe's not the recipe... ohhh. [ female announcer ] ...without swanson. the broth cooks trust most when making soup. mmmm! [ female announcer ] the secret is swanson. >>> for the past few days all of us have been focused on one of the worst storms in our lifetimes, and we're awed and humbled by nature's destructive power. i was out in new jersey yesterday and saw the devastation, and you really get a sense of, you know, how difficult this is going to be for a lot, a lot of people. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was president obama earlier today. voters are overwhelmingly supportive of his handling of the storm
one daily tracking poll has mitt romney up by two points. but a new poll just out shows obama up by several points, leading in wisconsin, new hampshire and iowa. >> back and forth, back and forth. >> you can stay more collected -- more connected than ever before. a reminder of what these types of storms can do. maryland was very lucky this week. there is no doubt about that. >> cleanup has begun a long pitcher's east shore, but what do you do about this? is brand-new, carved out as the storm ripped through the barrier island on monday night. the house is now flattened or moved or stuck. >> i don't know where the house came from. the bridge of his peers were used to join the main road. the houses were someplace else for monday night. there are those who were moved there. >> it is phenomenal. this is what the town looked like before monday. now it is gone. and tune has been pushed into the homes and streets. all along is destruction. house is piled onto one another and others burned to the ground. in seaside heights, both amusement peers are gone. this is what it used to look like
recently. also taking a look at "the wall street journal" nbc poll out today showing that president obama has a slim lead in some key battleground states. four points in iowa, three points here in wisconsin, two points in new hampshire. same time, soledad, those are not comfortable leads even though they tend to be consistent ones that we see. so you see both the obama campaign and romney campaign blanketing wisconsin, for instance, with surrogates. we saw vice president biden here last week as well as senator rubio, a key surrogate for mitt romney. last night, bill clinton was here. he is here this morning. yesterday vice presidential candidate paul ryan was here. we'll also be seeing, of course, president obama here today. you know, it's really interesting. something i want to point out, charles woodson of the green bay packers will be here to rally this crowd here at the airport ahead of president obama. he is the safety for the green bay packers. if you know about football, what does the safety do? they protect against long passes against, that's right, the hail mary, something the ob
to the polls 230 toelect a new president and the campaigning is in high gear. president obama and mitt romney both suspended their campaigns in the aftermath of hurricane sandy. today, they're back on the trail in key swing states. doug mcelway has the latest. >> reporter: whatever brief reprieve from political attacks offered in the wake of hurricane sandy is now a memory as president obama and challenger mitt romney refocus on campaigning. >> governor romney has been using all of his talent as a salesman to dress up these very same policies that failed our country so badly. >> reporter: wisconsin was what the state considered a lock for obama. with polls showing a tightening race, the president's appearance in green bay is telling how close this election could be. >> and i am moved by your welcome. >> reporter: mitt romney appeared in another key battleo ground state, addressing a crowd of window dressers in virginia and slammed the president on job creation. >> he's out talking about how he's going to save big bird and then playing silly word games with my last name or first and then attac
obama got back to the campaign trail today. initial opinion polls appear to give high marks for the president's handling of the storm crisis with even republican voters praising his quick response. >> for more, let's turn now to our representative who was in new york for the storm and is now following cleanup efforts. massive destruction in the region, but from what you've seen, how are new yorkers coping? >> i have just been to a neighborhood in brooklyn where the storm has been really hitting hard the people there. they were just desperate. some were crying. when you walk through the streets, you could see post a snap into the houses by the wind and water. it is terrible. people try to clean up their things. you can see furniture living outside, the couches, tv's, clothes. everything has been destroyed, and people just do not know what to do. it will take a long time to clean up. some cops are even stationed at gas stations because there have been fights. there is a--- a gas shortage. some parts still did not have any electricity. >> sounds very frustrating and overwhelmin
. >>> with just six days to go to the election, president obama is showing a boost in swing state polling while mitt romney's campaign is expanding its battleground and claiming momentum. is mark matthews is is here now to sort out the two differ iting visions of how the race is shaping up in the final days. >> three new polls out of the all-important swing state of ohio giving barack obama a three to five-point lead in each of the polls. at the same time, mitt romney's campaign is buying ads in pennsylvania and minnesota and michigan. states thought to be firmly in the blue state column. at his first rally in the aftermath of sandy, mitt romney steered clear of any direct attacks on the president. but it was clear the political winds are picking back up. >> i don't just talk about change, i actually have a plan to execute change and to make it happen. >> romney was joined by former are florida governor jeb bush who downplayed the president's role in responding to the storm. >> my experience in this emergency response business is that it is the low he cal level and state level that really matte
to new polls showing president obama leading in swing states. up by six in iowa, up by five in ohio, and ahead in other key states, including new hampshire, be virginia, florida, wisconsin, colorado, and nevada. and today, a major endorsement coming from new york city's independent mayor michael bloomberg. no question, this is a close race but today in wisconsin the president went after one of the key points in governor romney's closing argument to voters. >> the closing weeks of this campaign, governor romney has been using all his talents as a salesman to dress up these very same policies that failed our country so badly. and he is offering them change. he's saying he's the candidate of change. well, let me tell you, wisconsin, we know what change looks like. and what the governor is offering sure ain't change. >> it sure ain't change. but governor romney is good at changing on every position and doing anything to win. on the trail, he's trying to sound warm and cuddly. he's now taking a soft attack. the new york times quoting him on the trail as saying, democrats love america, to
. but the latest poll in pennsylvania shows obama 49 and romney 43. >> it's really about a five-point race and you can't make up five points in a week, especially because there's so much clutter on tv with all of the other candidates, it's hard to break through. if romney had gone on the air in pennsylvania the day after the first debate and stayed on the air at 5, $6 million a week for the four weeks, he might have had a chan of sneaking in. but he hasn't been in the state very much. ryan was in the state once. this buy for one week is truly a hail mary pass. what they figured out is that ohio is gone and they can't make the electoral map and that's why they are in michigan and pennsylvania and in minnesota. they've got to pull out one or two of those states to have a chance and i don't think they are going to pull out any of them. >> and you're correct, the race is 49/43. i was talking to one of the demographics. it's 49/43, a five-point gap. let me ask you this, maria, before we run out of time. the base of democratic party, women, minorities, are they energized, in your opinion, and will they
. we show romney up by two. we have shown obama up in five polls, very close. >> sean: you are the only ones that have him up? >> most of the polls show it close. i think this is going to be a state that is going to be all about the turnout on election day. >> gregg:. >> sean: according to early voting, obama is not doing that well and romney is doing better. you wrote a column and wisconsin may be the new ohio. no republican has gotten to the white house except through ohio. if romney was to lose ohio but if he wins the other three states fh he wins. >> it is possible. that makes wisconsin a divisive state. if we go to to the early states, romney wins florida and virginia president obama wins ohio, then can romney wins a state that obama won by 14 points. >> paul ryan is very popular in wisconsin. >> there three things. state changed between 2008 and 2010 that helped walker. then a huge battle over walker's plan. the recall effort forced republicans to build a great organization that has been turned over to the presidential campaign. polls are very close. paul ryan is added to the part
. that is grouch by seven or eight points, president obama won -- there is a 16-point swing in many of these polls. is that the difference? >> it is the difference. if you go to some of the battleground states, independents by definition are going to pick the winner of that state. that is huge. i think the other thing that not talked about enough, generation gap. a whole lot of attention about the young voters. that are going to vote for president obama but don't know how many will show up. seniors are leaning toward governor romney and enthusiasm is way up compared to 2008. >> sean: if you look at the independents and add the intensity and you add new republican voters you have a formula for success, at least for governor romney. now, we have to go state by state. this is an electoral college vote. do you see a scenario in which romney would win a popular voted and lose the electoral college? >> it is possible. i think for that to happen, romney would have to win the popular vote by less than one point. it could extend a little more than that. >> sean: let's go to florida. interesting poll i foun
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